McKinsey: business aviation demand outpacing supply, with industry leaders those quickest to respond

McKinsey & Company released its inaugural analysis of the business aviation industry this week, finding that demand for private aircraft is outpacing supply and that industry leaders will be those who respond quickest to limited aircraft availability, growing infrastructure constraints, and scaling difficulties.

According to Flying Magazine, which reported on the analysis, McKinsey said the "defining question" facing the industry is "no longer who can provide an aircraft but who can secure and coordinate the capacity around it, from delivery slots, crews, hangars, and maintenance to a seamless passenger experience." The consultancy drew from industry data and interviews with sector leaders including NetJets and West Star Aviation, covering the 2019–25 period.

Growth Outpacing Capacity

McKinsey found that departures have increased by 4.9 percent annually since 2019, reaching a record 3.9 million in 2025. The primary driver is a 5.6 percent annual rise in the ultra-high-net-worth individual (UHNWI) population during the studied timeframe. Patrick Gallagher, president of NetJets Aviation, noted that wealth transfer is expected to reach between $80 trillion and $100 trillion over the next 20 years.

Growth is particularly strong in North America, which McKinsey forecasts will represent 43 percent of the world's UHNWIs by 2031. Beyond increasing wealth, a decline in nonstop commercial routes for flights under 1,000 kilometres has reduced direct service to second-tier destinations, driving customers toward business aviation.

The industry has also absorbed demand due to geopolitical disruptions, such as the war in the Middle East. McKinsey found that crowded airports, inconsistent service, and lower on-time performance for commercial airlines have reduced their appeal despite rising investment in premium services.

Supply Constraints and Scaling Challenges

McKinsey said the business aviation industry is "coping" with challenges including limited supply of new aircraft, shifts in flight patterns to smaller airports, and the need to maintain momentum in consolidation. Stakeholders are struggling to accommodate the growth in departures, and it is unclear from available reporting what specific infrastructure investments or regulatory changes McKinsey recommends to address the gap between demand and available capacity.